From the time Miami won the first of its five national championships under the late Howard Schnellenberger in 1983, until Florida won its last crown under Urban Meyer in 2008, the Sunshine State impact on college football was profound and borderline ruthless, especially in the 1990s.
Between Florida State, the Hurricanes and Gators, they raised 10 national title banners in a 26-season stretch, then FSU added another in 2013.
When the Big Three weren’t being crowned as national champions, that trio still combined for 27 top-5 finishes during a quarter century period of brilliance that UM, UF and FSU may never duplicate again.
As college football is set for another landscape change due to further conference realignment, the impact of the Sunshine State teams has taken a significant dip, but all are hopeful for a resurgence/ascent under new or relatively new coaches.
With that in mind, here are my subjective chances over the next five years for Florida, Florida State and Miami — along with UCF, since the Knights are joining the Big 12 in 2023 — reaching what has become the main goal for Power-5 schools with big-time resources: reaching the College Football Playoff.
Since the CFP is expected to expand to 12 teams by at least 2026, or possibly sooner, percentage chances for each school to make the playoffs is assigned for both a 4-team field and a 12-team field.
A quick turnaround under first-year coach Billy Napier, say a 10-win season by his second or third year in the rugged SEC, isn’t totally out of the question, albeit would take some luck and a knockout 2023 recruiting class that is already in the top-10 based on current commitments.
With or without a 12-team playoff, the one thing Florida has going for it over the remaining state schools is being a member of a conference that will likely continue to have more CFP bids than any other league.
The potential downside for the Gators is this: with Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC by 2025 — maybe a year earlier if the Big 12 raids four teams from the Pac-12 and lets the two big dogs walk away — that’s a lot of blueblood programs vying for a maximum two SEC spots in a 4-team playoff or possibly four/five bids in an expanded 12-team CFP.
Nobody expects unranked Florida to be any kind of a CFP threat for at least two years, especially with Kentucky and Tennessee now looking like formidable obstacles and Georgia being far and away the SEC East’s best program.
Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart has stacked together so many elite recruiting classes that, despite losing a record 15 players to the NFL draft, Georgia is still considered an overwhelming preseason favorite to repeat as division champion.
That said, it’ll be interesting to see if Napier — successful in his first head coaching gig at Louisiana and who also worked four seasons under Alabama’s Nick Saban — can close the gap on Georgia the way Smart has elevated Georgia close to the ‘Bama standard.
Only two coaches in Florida history, Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, produced massive program turnarounds almost instantly. The difference with Napier is he faces a more loaded SEC, thus making the climb up the college football mountain a lot tougher.
Still, It’s a good sign for the Gators that Napier is making recruiting inroads early. Plus, with Florida opening the $85 million Heavener Football Training Center, it demonstrates a willingness to go all in on the SEC arms race. A big year from dual-threat quarterback and potential NFL first-round pick Anthony Richardson would give UF a chance to get Napier's program going in the right direction.
5-year crystal ball: 4-team playoff chances — 8 percent; 12-team playoff chances — 45 percent.
It’s hard to fathom the Seminoles are 26-33 since the 2016 season ended, a five-year cycle of ineptitude not seen in Tallahassee since the 1970s, just before the arrival of Bobby Bowden.
Mike Norvell is in his third year of a rebuild that is going slower than anticipated. Like many coaches, he has hit the transfer portal hard to offset a cupboard that was left fairly thin by predecessor Willie Taggart.
But the time has passed where Norvell apologists can keep using that as an excuse for the ‘Noles continuing to fall short of expectations. It’s not like FSU, outside of Clemson, faces any kind of murderer’s row schedule in the no-better-than-average ACC.
The fact is FSU is still down and needs to find a way to get up real fast. A pathway to the CFP, even with the format expanding to 12 teams, seems like a pipe dream right now for the ‘Noles.
It appears the ceiling for FSU in 2022 might be eight wins, and that’s if absolutely everything breaks right. Those aren’t the kind of programs threatening to be in any playoff hunt.
To illustrate how difficult it is navigating from an average team to national title contender, consider this: Of the 13 schools who have made the CFP, their average number of wins in the two seasons preceding their first entry into the playoff is 10.4.
In other words, programs generally don’t jump from middle-of-the-pack status in their own conference to national title contender in a couple years. Clemson won 21 games in the two years before starting their run of six consecutive CFP berths. Alabama and Ohio State both won 24 games. AAC outlier Cincinnati won 22 games before becoming the first non-Power 5 program last year to make the playoffs.
FSU, on a run of four straight losing seasons, is a long way from being any of those programs in the near future.
5-year crystal ball: 4-team playoff chances — 3 percent; 12-team playoff chances — 15 percent.
In its 18 seasons since joining the ACC, where the Hurricanes were expected to be a dominant force, the “U” has stood for underwhelming.
Nobody back in 2004 would have predicted the ‘Canes could go this long without winning one conference title and only once playing in the championship game, which resulted in a 38-3 blowout victory by Clemson (2017).
Four different coaches have tried since UM’s last national title season under Larry Coker in 2000 to resurrect the one-time dynasty. All of them failed pretty miserably, losing a combined 10 of 11 bowl games in the process.
There’s a fair amount of optimism that first-year coach Mario Cristobal, a former UM offensive tackle (1989-92) and an integral part of two national title teams, is best equipped to bring back the U.
Also a native of Miami, the 51-year-old Cristobal brings a pedigree to the job like nobody else in the program’s history. The school has invested heavily in the belief its native son can deliver, signing him to a 10-year, $80 million contract. An extension of its current indoor practice facility is reportedly in the works at a cost of $100 million.
Momentum is slowly building for Cristobal, who reeled in 10 four-star recruits in his first recruiting class and has a top-10 class going for 2023. On the field, the ‘Canes appear more primed than any of the state teams to be a league contender in 2022, with future NFL quarterback Tyler Van Dyke returning to lead a veteran offense.
UM should be in the hunt for the Coastal division title with Pittsburgh and Virginia, giving them maybe a puncher’s chance of being a top-10 team. But the schedule isn’t kind as the ‘Canes must travel to Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Clemson.
But from a long-term view, if Cristobal can duplicate the kind of success he had at Oregon (35-13, 4 years) to begin his UM tenure, the ‘Canes might finally be able to make some noise in the ACC and beyond.
5-year crystal ball: 4-team playoff chances — 15 percent; 12-team playoff chances — 40 percent.
As long as the Knights are in the AAC, getting to the playoff is the longest of long shots. Yes, Cincinnati got in last year, but only because it went undefeated and knocked off a pretty respectable Notre Dame team 24-13 on the road.
UCF doesn’t play enough formidable opponents in 2022 to duplicate Cincy getting into the CFP. The Knights’ best chance is to make some noise when they get to the Big 12 next year, and even then, it’s going to be tough adjusting to that schedule upgrade.
Gus Malzahn’s team may have to deal with Oklahoma and Texas for one, two or three years, depending on when those schools join the SEC. Even with the Sooners and Longhorns out of the picture, UCF will have to start recruiting better if it expects to just reach middle-of-the-pack status in the Big 12.
Right now, prospects for fellow AAC members Cincy and Houston are better, and then UCF will also have to go up against the likes of Baylor, Oklahoma State and BYU once it moves to the Big 12.
It’s one thing to beat a disjointed Florida team with an interim coach in the Gasparilla Bowl, quite another to be a championship contender in the Big 12.
5-year crystal ball: 4-team playoff chances — 1 percent; 12-team playoff chances — 8 percent.
Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette